China's 'hidden debt' problem bigger than Beijing suggests, analysts say

Debt swap program still leaves estimated $6tn in off-balance-sheet liabilities

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A bridge over a partially frozen river in China's Jilin province. Analysts warn that debt raised to fund unprofitable infrastructure projects could continue to snowball. © Reuters

WATARU SUZUKI, Nikkei staff writer

SHANGHAI -- For some economists, the biggest takeaway when China announced its latest plan to reduce "hidden debt" at local governments was not the size of the support but how large the government thinks the problem is.

In a news conference on Nov. 8, Finance Minister Lan Fo'an said there was 14.3 trillion yuan ($1.97 trillion) in hidden debt at local governments as of 2023. Economists, however, estimate the total amount of off-balance-sheet borrowing to be 50 to 60 trillion yuan, leaving a difference equivalent to about $6 trillion.

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