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The BOJ is widely seen debating whether it should raise the policy rate by 25 basis points on Friday or wait to do so till March 18-19. (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Mizuho Miyazaki and Akira Kodaka)

All eyes on cautious BOJ as money flows out of Japan

Reluctance to tighten has market curtailing rate hike expectations through 2026

TOKYO -- Market players are prepared for the Bank of Japan on Friday to double its key rate to 0.5% or to wait until later this year despite Gov. Kazuo Ueda saying a hike is on the agenda, illustrating that the market has learned its lesson over the past year: Ueda is cautious when it comes to policy tightening.

"It's quite amazing that the BOJ has to use so much caution just to raise the policy rate to 0.5% from 0.25% when inflation is running above 2%," said Tohru Sasaki, chief currency strategist at Fukuoka Financial Group.

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