Australia's huge housing market keeps central bank on knife edge

Test awaits in 2023 as inflation-fighting rate hikes put focus on mortgage servicing

20221211 australia homes

A coastal Sydney suburb. Australia's AU$9.4 trillion housing stock is worth more than four times the size of its gross domestic product. © Reuters

PRASHANT MEHRA, Contributing writer

SYDNEY -- Australia's pivotal housing sector is turning into a double-edged sword for its central bank, which has repeatedly talked about a narrow path toward achieving a "soft landing" for the economy in its battle against inflation.

A key to that goal is how households, which hold nearly 2 trillion Australian dollars ($1.35 trillion) of housing debt, respond to a succession of interest rate hikes -- the latest coming last week. Most economists expect the nation will avoid a recession, but those hopes could be dashed if home prices plummet by more than the expected 20% from their peak earlier this year.

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