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Japan to miss 2025 fiscal target even under rosiest scenario

Government estimate hinges on optimistic growth forecasts and tighter social spending

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, right, sits with Economic Minister Toshimitsu Motegi while discussing long-term fiscal estimates with the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy.

TOKYO -- Japan's Cabinet Office released on Jan. 30 its latest fiscal projections, saying the country can achieve a budget surplus excluding debt payments in fiscal 2026.

While this is an improvement from a July projection that said the primary balance would not be reached until fiscal 2027, the new projection is based on more generous assumptions for high economic growth.

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