G20 Finance Ministers and central bankers have plenty to discuss at their meeting in Shanghai today: the outlook for global growth is soft, with significant risks of further weakening, even if a full-blown recession remains unlikely.
Uncertainty about the economic outlook is reflected in financial sector turbulence. The recent equity market sell-off has pushed many risk and market stress indicators to levels not seen since 2009 and 2011. And credit, profit and interest rate cycles, which historically tend to move together, are also out of kilter.
