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Economy

Who gained, who lost

Big winner:

POPULIST POLITICIANS. Donald Trump wasted no time in hailing Brexit as a "great victory," claiming it proved the potency of his anti-immigration message. Nationalist politicians in Europe also made hay; France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen decked out her Twitter page in Union Jack flags and called for a French referendum with the slogan "From Brexit to Frexit." Her Front National party printed Brexit posters showed hands breaking free from chains, with the caption "Now it's France's turn."

Calls for a referendum on EU membership were also heard in Sweden, Denmark and Austria. Greek neo-Nazis rejoiced. And a Kremlin-friendly businessman, Boris Titov, hailed the British vote as "Europe's independence from the U.S."

Other winners:

Gold and the yen. The two current favorite safe haven investments have already surged on the Brexit vote. They are likely to stay strong if market turmoil persists, despite efforts by the Bank of Japan to stop the yen rising too far.

Paris, Frankfurt and Hong Kong. Alternative financial centers will benefit in the long term from a shift in trading away from London. The mayor of Paris has offered a red-carpet welcome to bankers coming from the U.K.

Ronick Chan, vice chairman of the Chinese Banking Association of Hong Kong, said that while London faced hardship, "Hong Kong on the other hand might gain some opportunities." The Chinese territory's position as an offshore yuan center could be cemented as a result of Brexit.

Big loser:

LONDON. The British capital knew Brexit was bad news; that's why its inhabitants voted to Remain by a clear margin. Within hours of the referendum result, the Londoners' nightmare was coming true: Big international banks based in the financial district were already figuring out how many employees to move from London to continental Europe. A report in April by PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated there would be between 70,000 and 100,000 fewer jobs in the City by 2020 if Britain left the EU.

Asian investors owning property in London will take a hit too; real estate agents predict that prices will fall after Brexit. Fewer jobs in London and fewer immigrants mean less demand for apartments and homes in the British capital. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts a 10% price correction in the next year.

Other losers:

Asian investors in the U.K. Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Hitachi and Tata are among the big names who bet on the U.K. as a base for European manufacturing. They now face years of uncertainty about whether goods they export from the U.K. to Europe will face tariffs and will find it harder to recruit skilled labor for their factories if tight controls are clamped on migration.

Advocates of closer ASEAN integration. Those who want the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to go beyond a free-trade area and develop closer economic integration along EU lines will find their arguments much harder to make. Fans of the Trans-Pacific Partnership should also worry; free trade deals and globalization are not in fashion right now.

Michael Stott was U.K. news editor at the Financial Times and is now on assignment from the FT to Nikkei.

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