ASEAN must juggle China's export surge with global de-risking

China's industrial overcapacity is flooding ASEAN markets, testing the region's trade policies

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A container ship sails off a container terminal in Qingdao in east China's Shandong province on Feb. 23, 2025. © AP

Brendan Kelly is a nonresident fellow on Chinese economy and technology at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis. Shay Wester is the director of Asian economic affairs at the Institute.

A surge in exports pushed China's trade surplus close to $1 trillion in 2024, with ASEAN the largest destination for Chinese shipments. Many of these exports are intermediate goods that have in turn supported ASEAN's own export growth -- shipments to the U.S. exceeded $350 billion last year.

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