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Asia economy in 2019 at the mercy of Trump's trade policy

Japan risks contraction if US-China and US-Japan talks go badly

| Japan
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy will continue to be one of Asia's top worries.   © Reuters

The Asian economy should keep growing in 2019 albeit at a somewhat slower pace than in 2018. With most economies showing no signs of overheating, interest rates will likely stay low and so support economic growth.

That is my main scenario. But the shadow of the U.S.'s America First protectionist policies looms large. Trade tensions mean that China and Japan, Asia's two biggest economies, as well as others, face risks of a sharper slowdown.

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