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Opinion

Taiwan is safe until at least 2027, but with one big caveat

China is not ready to attack island territory

| Taiwan
Taiwanese Air Force F-16 fighter jet in foreground flies on the flank of Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force H-6 bomber as it passes near Taiwan in February 2020.   © Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense/AP

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Rand Corp. He formerly served as an intelligence adviser at the Pentagon.

Six years. That is how long Taiwan might have left before suffering a Chinese military attack. At least that was the estimate according to outgoing commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, back in March during open Congressional testimony.

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