Ukraine war will make China think twice about invading Taiwan

Uncertainty about sanctions, resistance and combat capability weigh on Beijing

James Stavridis

November 1, 2022 05:00 JST

20221028 Shandong aircraft carrier ceremony.jpg

An honor guard raises the Chinese flag on the deck of the Shandong aircraft carrier in 2019: Without the harsh experience of large-scale combat, how an attack on Taiwan would unfold is an uncertainty for Beijing. © Xinhua/AP

Retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis is vice chairman for global affairs and a managing director at private equity firm The Carlyle Group. He previously served as supreme allied commander of NATO and dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. He is the author of "2034: A Novel of the Next World War."

As the dust settles from the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's ascension to an unprecedented third term as general secretary, Beijing's view of the unfolding Russian invasion of Ukraine is taking on growing geopolitical significance.