- An end to President Rodrigo Duterte's offensive against Islamist extremists in the southern Philippine state of Mindanao does not seem imminent more than a month into the conflict. A drawn-out war would erode support for the president.
- The country's record does not breed confidence that economic reconstruction will be swift - and a slow and inefficient recovery would be damaging to Mr Duterte's popularity, as it was for his predecessor Benigno Aquino following Typhoon Haiyan in 2013.
- Though the immediate economic impact has been limited, a lengthy conflict would set back attempts to promote "inclusive growth", and weaker support for Mr Duterte would probably hinder the implementation of his policy agenda, including his planned shift to a more federalised system.
The insurgency in the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, led by local Isis-linked terrorist group Maute, has rumbled on for just over a month. Nearly 400 people have been killed, including 71 state troops and 27 civilians, while thousands have been displaced.
The conflict is the biggest challenge yet for President Rodrigo Duterte, who swept to power just over a year ago on a wave of popular support, particularly among the country's poor. While FT Confidential Research data has tracked a decline in support among the Filipino poor caught up in his much-criticised war on drugs, Mr Duterte has maintained strong support among his former constituents in his homeland of Mindanao (see chart).
