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Location, hard power underpin Turkey's geopolitical renaissance

But prolonged fighting in Ukraine may force Erdogan to clearly pick sides

The Montreux Convention gives Turkey the right to close the Bosporus in times of war, which it has. But If Vladimir Putin desperately needed more ships in the Black Sea, Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have a hard choice to make. (Source photos by Reuters and Getty Images) 

TOKYO/ISTANBUL -- Mere months ago Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on the ropes. The lira had crashed and his unorthodox monetary policy was being ridiculed in financial markets.

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its subsequent struggles on the battlefield, have led to a dramatic diplomatic turnaround for Turkey, which finds itself at the center of efforts to establish a cease-fire.

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