India fertility fall puts policymakers on clock to avoid Japan-like strain

Lancet report shows New Delhi needs to 'start acting now,' experts say

A newborn in the Indian state of Bihar in March 2023. While India's falling fertility rate could bring some benefits to the world's most populous nation, and the full impact is decades away, experts say policymakers need to begin preparing for some serious challenges. © Reuters

NEETA LAL, Contributing writer

March 25, 2024 15:12 JST

NEW DELHI -- Demographic pressures hitting aging Asian economies like China and Japan are also looming on the horizon for India, new research highlights, putting the world's most populous country in a race against time to mitigate the effects.

India's total fertility rate, which measures the average number of births per woman, plummeted from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021, and is projected to fall further to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100, according to a new global study published last week in The Lancet journal. A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered replacement level, and the shift could have major ramifications as the working population shrinks while older age groups expand.