Trump tariffs seen backfiring with 1% hit to U.S. GDP: Nikkei analysis

Japan likely to receive 0.2% boost, and ASEAN members also to benefit

20241213N trump tariffs illustration

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and an additional 10% duty on goods from China.

HATSUKI SATO and CHIHIRO UCHIYAMA, Nikkei staff writers

TOKYO -- Tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump would drag down U.S. gross domestic product by 1.1% in 2027 via their impact on prices and employment, according to a Nikkei estimate.

Nikkei commissioned a study on the impact of the proposed tariffs with the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization and added its own analysis. The study is based on the tariff plans announced by Trump on Nov. 25. These include a 25% duty on products from Mexico and Canada -- three-nation free trade agreement partners -- and an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods.

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