Afraid of further sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't have the stomach for recognizing the "independence" of Russian-speaking provinces in eastern Ukraine. But whatever the eventual compromise, it will have a significant impact on global geopolitics.

What if Russia under Putin, hit by sanctions, turns its gaze to the East and begins to relocate economic, political and strategic resources to the Asia-Pacific region? First, it would not be easy, practically speaking. Russia's cultural identity is European. Though recent polls indicate a rise in xenophobia among Russians due to hostility from the West, 41% of those polled still favor better relations with Western powers.