Letter from Nikkei Asia's editor: China's growth dilemma

Shin Nakayama shares his weekly reflections and recommendations

20240311 Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 8

This year's National People's Congress revealed little about how China's policymakers plan to revive the economy. (Photo by Mizuho Miyazaki)

Hello from Tokyo. When China's annual National People's Congress ended on Monday, the overall impression was how increasingly difficult it is becoming to know what is happening in the country. Sure, the NPC is ultimately just a political show, but my colleagues in Beijing say covering the event has become extremely challenging, especially now that even the traditional closing press conference by Premier Li Qiang has been scrapped.

The main focus now is on the direction of the Chinese economy, but the NPC provided little clarity on this, as few specific stimulus measures were outlined. I found this week's Big Story very helpful in better understanding the state of affairs in China by delving into the many challenges facing the world's second-largest economy.

The story points out that while real estate and infrastructure investment used to be the twin engines of China's expansion, economists say Beijing's long-term task now is to rebalance the economy to rely on consumption, rather than investment, for growth. This sounds a lot like the problem Japan once faced.

Japan is on the brink of finally emerging from decades of deflation. Recent economic data may not indicate strong growth, but many Japanese companies are giving their workers their biggest pay raises in years, which could be seen as a break from the deflationary mindset surrounding the economy and a tail wind nudging the Bank of Japan to end its ultraloose monetary policy next week or in April.

One of the major reasons for the large pay increases is the country's severe labor shortage. Tackling this problem has been a major challenge for the Japanese economy, which is confronted with a declining birthrate and an aging population, as well as stricter regulations on overtime work. It is against this backdrop that Business Spotlight in this week's magazine looks at the growing interest in and development of self-driving forklifts and unmanned warehouse management technology in Japan.

Securing strong logistics networks is key in the global economy. Mindful of this, Cambodia is moving forward with an ambitious project to build a canal that would provide a shorter route from Phnom Penh to Cambodian ports on the Gulf of Thailand. According to our latest Asia Insight, this project, which is expected to receive investment from China, has neighboring Vietnam alarmed about the possible environmental and economic impacts.

Economic impacts are at the heart of a rare personal essay from our correspondent in Tehran. Tala Taslimi writes about her recent trip to the scenic Iranian resort island of Kish in the Persian Gulf, using her visit there with her family nearly two decades ago to draw comparisons. She vividly describes how the once-bustling tourist destination has become a ghost town after prolonged Western sanctions.

Lastly, I have a great announcement to make. Nikkei Asia has just won two Best in Business Awards from the U.S. Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing, marking the third consecutive year our publication has won multiple awards in the competition. Being recognized like this is profoundly encouraging as we strive to bring the voice of Asia to the world.

Wishing you a wonderful weekend!

Shin Nakayama

Editor-in-chief, Nikkei Asia

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