Hello from Tokyo. Japan has been hit hard by devastating news right from the start of 2024, with massive earthquakes on the Noto Peninsula on Jan. 1 and a plane crash at Haneda Airport the day after. New Year's Day is usually a time when people in the country wish for a peaceful and prosperous year ahead, but these events have completely shattered such sentiment.
Rescue efforts following the quakes, which have already killed more than 200 people, are being hampered by the geographical constraints of the peninsula, the largest on the coast of the Sea of Japan. The Self-Defense Forces need to deploy gradually rather than all at once as they monitor the situation on the ground. When snow began to fall, the operation became more difficult.
As the Japanese media rush to provide daily news of these tragic events, something that caught my attention was a message from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida offering his condolences. According to Japan's government, no North Korean leader has ever sent such a letter in response to a natural disaster. In the correspondence, Kim addresses Kishida as "Your Excellency" for the first time.
Kim has so far only used this title for former U.S. President Donald Trump, according to South Korean media, and we all know what happened with those two leaders. So my interest lies in what we should take from the letter to Kishida. The U.S., Japan and South Korea have recently strengthened their security cooperation and put pressure on the North in the face of its provocations. The most obvious explanation would be the possibility that Kim is trying to weaken this trilateral cooperation by bringing Kishida closer to him.
According to Nikkei's Korean Peninsula expert, Hiroshi Minegishi, North Korea is apparently trying to provoke its southern neighbor. In fact, the letter was sent on Jan. 5, when North Korea fired more than 200 artillery shells near a disputed maritime border with the South. It marks quite a contrast to send artillery shells to its neighbor while sending a condolence letter to Japan for the first time.
South Korea will hold legislative elections in April, and politicians are already gearing up for the vote. North-South relations will undoubtedly be a major issue, just as the Taiwan Strait is for Taiwan's presidential election on Saturday. Pundits are closely watching how relations with North Korea will affect the South's Yoon Suk Yeol administration, which has taken a harder line than its predecessor.
Meanwhile, Kishida has repeatedly expressed his willingness to meet with Kim, and last year said he intended to "continue pursuing high-level talks" under his direct control to resolve the long-standing issue of Pyongyang's past abductions of Japanese citizens. If he could move this issue forward, it would be a historic achievement for Kishida, whose approval rating lies at an all-time low.
Will Kishida reply to Kim's letter in any way? The government has said it doesn't usually respond to foreign leaders to thank them for their efforts in disaster relief or for offering condolences. A government source gave me a nuanced response to this question, saying that for Kishida, who seeks dialogue, the letter should not be taken negatively but neither should it be taken optimistically. Minegishi points out that the reply could be used as a pretext to start the high-level dialogue he mentioned. As a reminder, Trump and Kim have exchanged 47 letters.
Of course, negotiations with North Korea are always fraught with danger. Pyongyang closely watches the domestic political situation in Japan. With the ongoing slush fund scandal in Kishida's party and his approval ratings plummeting, North Korea may even be swayed into thinking the prime minister could be easy to negotiate with.
Still, there are many things beyond the prospects for Kishida and Kim to make predictions on for 2024. The first Big Story in our magazine this year is a special feature in which we asked our readers 10 questions on closely watched topics. Our prediction series has a good track record of correctly forecasting answers in recent years. I recommend keeping this issue for the record, too.
In my New Year's Day opinion piece, I wrote about the U.S. presidential election and stressed that we shouldn't focus too much on the outcome of the vote, which will most likely be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. However, to my surprise, in our prediction piece, over 60% of readers who responded thought that Trump would be re-elected. Among other predictions, I recommend our Business Spotlight, which highlights a dozen companies in Asia to watch this year.
Finally, please check out our coverage of CES, the world's largest consumer technology show in Las Vegas. To get a feel for the event, I highly recommend this week's episode of our Tech Latest podcast, where technology reporters and editors discuss the most exciting trends at CES, including flying cars and self-driving strollers. Our podcast has a fresh look for 2024 and you can tune in every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and other platforms here.
Wishing you a wonderful weekend!
Shin Nakayama
Editor-in-chief, Nikkei Asia
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