India election: How Modi's unexpectedly narrow win unfolded

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NEW DELHI/BENGALURU -- Election Commission officials on June 4 counted ballots cast over India's six-week general election, which ended on June 1.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party unexpectedly lost its outright majority for the first time since coming to power a decade ago, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured a third term in office with the backing of alliance partners.

Analysts say losing a majority could hurt Modi's reform agenda as he would need to win over allies instead of calling the shots.

Read our latest updates here. For all our coverage, visit our India election page.

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Here is how the election unfolded (times are in India Standard Time):

Friday (June 7)

7:30 p.m. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi says that President Droupadi Murmu has invited him to form a government, as he promised his new coalition of 15 parties would strive for unanimity and emerge successful, Reuters reports. The new government is set to be sworn in on Sunday evening, which would make Modi prime minister for a historic third consecutive term.

Thursday (June 6)

5:00 p.m. During India's six-week elections, most political pundits had predicted a landslide victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party.

They were in for a shock when the results of the world's largest elections rolled in on Tuesday. The ruling party lost its outright majority for the first time since coming to power a decade ago. The BJP took just 240 seats in the 543-seat lower house of parliament, more than 30 short of a majority and forcing it to rely on allies to form a new government.

Here are five things to know about the surprise election results.

11:00 a.m. Indian shares rise in early trading, led by gains in state-run companies, as investors moved past shock election results that reduced the ruling party's majority. The NSE Nifty 50 index was up 0.93% at 22,831 as of 10:31 a.m and the S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.95% to 75,088, according to Reuters.

Modi's National Democratic Alliance formally named him as the leader of a new coalition government, a day after it regained power with the surprisingly slim majority.

Wednesday (June 5)

9:30 p.m. Election results showing an underwhelming victory for Modi's coalition sparked volatile trading in shares of companies owned by Gautam Adani, prompting an opposition leader to claim that the fates of the nation's leader and its most prominent billionaire were "correlated."

Adani Group shares rose on Wednesday as partners in Modi's ruling coalition reaffirmed their support. Adani Enterprises and Adani Power were up 6% and 0.5%. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone rose 8%, while Adani Total Gas and Adani Green Energy were up 3% and 11%.

9:10 p.m. U.S. President Joe Biden congratulates Modi and the National Democratic Alliance on their electoral victory.

"The friendship between our nations is only growing as we unlock a shared future of unlimited potential," Biden says in a post on X.

4:00 p.m. India's archrival China, its largest trading partner despite testy ties over border issues, congratulated Modi on a victory that fell short of a widely predicted landslide. "China stands ready to work with India to act in the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples, bear in mind the overall interest of our ties, look to the future and advance bilateral relations on a healthy and stable track," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told a regular press conference in Beijing.

2:50 p.m. Indian shares jump 3% after two key members of Modi's alliance -- the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) -- pledged their continued support for it forming a new government after a narrow win.

1:10 p.m. Modi will be sworn in for his new term as prime minister on June 8, local TV channels report. Modi's cabinet recommended the dissolution of the lower house of Parliament on Wednesday, according to news agency ANI.

12:00 p.m. Indian stocks are volatile after the unexpectedly narrow win by Modi's alliance, with the Nifty index swinging between gains and losses in early trading. Investors are worried that Modi's BJP will have to rely on regional parties, whose political loyalties have wavered over the years, to form the government, raising concerns over the economic policy, Reuters reports.

11:30 a.m. According to official results from the Election Commission of India, the BJP gained 240 seats, down by 63 compared with the last general election. The BJP lost its outright majority for the first time in a decade. Voting tallies by local news channels showed that the NDA ended up with only 292 seats.

Tuesday (June 4)

9:05 p.m. Local media say that the opposition INDIA bloc will hold a meeting at 6 p.m. on Wednesday. Earlier, when asked if they have decided to sit in the opposition or there are chances of government formation by INDIA, possibly by wooing back some former allies who are now part of the NDA, Rahul Gandhi said, "We are going to have a meeting with our INDIA alliance partners [which] I believe is tomorrow and these questions will be raised there and they will answered there."

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge maintained that they can speak about making a majority only after speaking to their alliance partners and those new allies who could join them. "If I reveal all strategies here, then Modi ji will be [alerted]."

7:25 p.m. Narendra Modi posted on X: "People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India's history." Local media say he will make a televised address at 8 p.m.

6:13 p.m. At a press briefing held by the opposition Congress party, President Mallikarjun Kharge said, "The Congress and the India alliance fought elections under many challenges, the government put many obstacles, including freezing of bank accounts. Despite these challenges, people supported us."

He added, "Our fight hasn't reached the desired destination, [but] for saving democracy and constitution, our border and the people of this country, we will keep fighting. The coming days will be important."

Rahul Gandhi spoke after, saying, "This election for India alliance and Congress party didn't fight against a political party only. This was against BJP, institutions, governance structures ... it was a fight against all. All these institutions were captured by Modi, and [Home Minister] Amit Shah. The fight was about saving the constitution."

He continued: "When they froze our bank accounts, put chief ministers in jail, broke parties, I thought people of India will come together to save the constitution. And I have been proven right."

5:10 p.m. Modi wins in his Varanasi constituency in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, according to a post on the Election Commission's website.

4:08 p.m. The benchmark Sensex closed 5.7% lower, slightly recovering from a fall of 7.2% earlier. "We see Narendra Modi returning as PM but in changed circumstances," financial research firm Emkay wrote in a statement. "The broad direction of the economy is unlikely to change, though factor market reform and privatization are off the table. India is likely to now derate due to higher risk perception."

3:49 p.m. Women and Child Development Minister Smriti Irani is trailing Congress veteran Kishori Lal at the Amethi constituency in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh by more than 100,000 votes, according to the Election Commission. Irani had caused a major upset in the 2019 elections by defeating Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, considered a Gandhi family and Congress stronghold.

12:50 p.m. The early trend shows the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will easily cross the majority mark of 272 seats needed to form a government but fall short of the landslide predicted by exit polls. As of 12:45 p.m., the NDA is leading races for 290 seats while the opposition INDIA bloc is winning races for 234 seats, according to a local private news channel NDTV.

12:40 p.m. India's stock market plunges further, with the benchmark index Sensex falling 7.26% to hit its lowest point in about six months. Heavy selling has been sparked by fears that the ruling BJP may have to rely on its allies to cross the majority mark, which could in turn slow the government's ability to implement reforms.

10:37 a.m. A BJP spokesperson said it looks unlikely the National Democratic Alliance led by the party will achieve a goal of 400 seats that was often touted by Modi during campaigning. "That's a fair assessment to say 400 certainly looks distant, but we need to wait until sixth and seventh round of counting," said Nalin Kohli. "BJP and its allies will form the government, that's very clear. We are entitled to, as ... any party is, say this is our target, why should we not have a wish list?"

9:40 a.m. India's benchmark stock index, the Sensex, tanked 3.0% in the morning after early trends showed that although the BJP and its allies had a lead, the opposition was not very far behind.

The Sensex had risen 3.4% on Monday on the back of exit polls predicting a comfortable win for the incumbent government, which has spent billions of dollars in infrastructure spending and subsidies to transform India into a manufacturing hub. Investors took profits on Tuesday after the previous day's rise and as the opposition put up a strong fight.

The BJP's chief spokesperson, Sanju Verma, said: "We are far ahead -- from noon you will see the lead between NDA (the National Democratic Alliance) and the other side will widen, BJP will cross the important benchmark of 400 seats." But the spokesperson of the opposition Congress party, Shama Mohamed, said, "These are early trends -- we still believe we will win, and you will get to see it around noon."

8:56 a.m. Reporters from local media started gathering in front of the ruling BJP's headquarters in central New Delhi at around 7:30 a.m. Right after the counting of ballots began, TV channels started releasing trends, all showing the BJP and its alliance in the lead, as predicted by the exit polls.

8:00 a.m. The Election Commission of India started counting at hundreds of voting stations in each of 36 states and federally governed territories. Most voters cast their ballots using electronic voting machines that allowed them to press a button beside the name and party symbol of a candidate. At counting centers, officials press a "results" button to see the total votes for each candidate.

The Election Commission said on Monday that 642 million out of the 968 million registered voters had cast ballots. The raw number was higher than in 2019, but the turnout was about 1 percentage point lower than the 67.4% five years ago.

Trends should emerge by noon, and who is forming the next government should become clearer in the afternoon.