Japan LDP election: Ishiba vows to protect nation, bolster U.S. alliance

TOKYO -- Former Defense Minister and party heavyweight Shigeru Ishiba won the race on Friday to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the nation's next prime minister.

7 p.m. We will be closing the blog now. For more information about this historic day, take a look at some of our other articles on Ishiba.

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6:50 p.m. At a press conference following his victory, Ishiba vowed to boost wages and end deflation, and touched on national security issues, including his vision of an Asian NATO.

'In a time of declining U.S. power, the question is how to create a collective security system in the region. We should think about organically combining many alliances that we have."

"As we are facing many security issues, we will make sure to protect Japan," he said in reference to recent moves including airspace intrusions by Russia and China, and North Korean missile launches.

Asked about intention to consider revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement, he said that "it is important to build a training base for the Japan's Self-Defense Forces in the United States" as an effective way to strengthen Japan's alliance with the U.S.

He gave few details on his future cabinet line-up, nor state exactly when he would call a general election.

6:23 p.m. Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, the country's leading business lobby, released a comment welcoming "experienced politician" Ishiba's appointment.

The group stressed that "Energy policy is essential, especially in maximizing the use of nuclear energy and promoting research and development of innovative reactors and nuclear fusion."

Ishiba is known to have cautious views on nuclear due to safety concerns.

5:23 p.m. Japanese stocks are not reacting well to Ishiba's victory, which came after trading ended. Nikkei 225 Futures plummeted to 37,900, down 1,950 points, or 5.1%, at the opening of the Friday night session. It then fell as much as 2,220 points, or 5.8%, to 37,630 at 4:36 p.m. Ishiba is in favor of raising rates and is open to higher capital gains taxes.

4:48 p.m. Read our story on how currency markets reacted to Ishiba's win.

4:45 p.m. China expressed hope on Friday for Japan to adopt an "objective and correct" understanding of its neighbor and collaborate to foster healthy and stable two-way relations, Reuters reported. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian made the remarks during a regular news conference in Beijing, when asked about the prospects of Japan's former defence minister set to become its next prime minister.

4:18 p.m. The international reaction is starting to come in. First up, the U.S. ambassador to Japan:

3:56 p.m. For those that missed them, below are the official results:

3:45 p.m. Read more about who Ishiba is in this profile piece:

3:43 p.m. The newly-elected leader said in a victory speech: "Prime Minister Kishida has made a decision to let the LDP be reborn and win back the public's trust. We must all pull together to respond to this."

Kishida himself said: "From now on, under the leadership of the new president, we must unite to fulfill our responsibility to the people. ... We must ask the new LDP president, Mr. Shigeru Ishiba, to create a strong cabinet with his executive power, decisiveness, and ability to create policies, and produce results."

3:41 p.m. The yen jumped more than 1% to 143.3 to the dollar on Friday afternoon after Ishiba clinched victory. He supports monetary policy normalization and has expressed openness to higher capital gains taxes.

3:30 p.m. Here are the results of Ishiba's come-from-behind victory in the second round.

3:20 p.m. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba wins race to become LDP leader.

3 p.m. Ballot counting in the second round has begun. The result is expected in about 20 minutes.

2:35 p.m. Both Takaichi and Ishiba gave short speeches before the second round of voting began.

Ishiba said: "We will put an end to the widespread distrust in the LDP. Once the election is over, we will put our hearts into protecting Japan, local areas, rules and the people of Japan."

Takaichi said: "I have advanced to the runoff vote as a female candidate, which is a historic moment for Japan," adding, "I'd like to ensure that economic activity reaches every corner of Japan, so that the next generation can live safely."

2:23 p.m. The yen weakened to 146.2 against the dollar on Friday afternoon after Sanae Takaichi -- who is against higher rates --finished top of the first round of the poll. Going into the vote count, the yen traded in the lower-145 level but quickly weakened as Takaichi racked up votes.

The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average jumped to 39,598.61, up 672.98 points, or 1.73%.

"If Ms. Takaichi becomes the next prime minister, she is likely to strongly oppose further rate hikes -- as she has pledged to do --regardless of the makeup of her cabinet," Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities, said in a note Friday.

2:19 p.m. Here are the results of the first round of voting.

2:10 p.m. Sanae Takaichi and Shigeru Ishiba advance to the second round of voting.

1:34 p.m. Vote counting begins. It should take around 25 minutes.

1:30 p.m. Kishida, also the LDP's current president, said he would vote for the candidate who gets the most votes from rank-and-file party members if the election goes to a second round. Taro Aso, the influential vice president of the LDP, plans to vote for Sanae Takaichi in the final vote, Nikkei has learned.

1 p.m. LDP lawmakers began casting their votes in the first round of the poll. Results of this stage are expected around 2:20 p.m., with the top two candidates going to a run-off.

11:46 a.m. Japanese stocks closed Friday morning largely flat, erasing most gains from earlier in the session, as investors await who will become the new leader of the LDP. The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average rose 39.02 points, or 0.10%, to 38,964.65. The yen strengthened to around 145.07 to the dollar from the mid-145 level in the morning.

11:28 a.m. The scene outside the LDP's headquarters:

11:07 a.m. Rank-and-file party members will have a big say in the first round of voting, in which the party's 368 Diet members cast ballots, with an equivalent number of votes allocated to the LDP's 1.09 million party members. This will be followed by a second round run-off between the top two candidates when a total of 415 votes will be up for grabs -- 368 from the lawmakers and 47 from local party chapters.

10:53 a.m. Japanese stocks traded higher on Friday morning partly because Taro Aso, vice president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has reportedly supported Sanae Takaichi, whose victory would mean a weaker yen and stronger equities. The incumbent economic security minister, Takaichi, advocates Abenomics and has vocally opposed higher interest rates.

The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average was up 317.67 points, or 0.82%, at 39,243.30 as of 10:15 a.m. The yield on newly issued two-year government bonds -- which are more sensitive to imminent changes in rates -- dropped to 0.310%, down 0.030%. The yen traded in the mid-145 level, off 0.27%.

10:50 a.m. Some of the leading candidates have been active on social media this morning.

10:47 a.m. Tobias Harris, author of a biography of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, says the race will be very close.

"There have been no significant shifts in the race during the final days of the campaign. The two finalists are likely to be from the top-tier group of Ishiba Shigeru, Koizumi Shinjiro, and Takaichi Sanae. As expected, the election will likely be one of the most dramatic in the LDP's seven-decade history, with the top three candidates likely finishing in the first round within roughly 10-20 votes of each other, and no certainty about who will advance to the runoff, let alone win overall," Harris wrote in an emailed note.

"The second round may be easier to read than the first. If Koizumi can survive the first round, he is the most likely to win the leadership against both Ishiba and Takaichi."

10:35 a.m. Welcome to this live blog from a rainy Tokyo.

Nine candidates are running (in alphabetical order by surname):

• Yoshimasa Hayashi (chief cabinet secretary)
• Shigeru Ishiba (former defense minister)
• Yoko Kamikawa (foreign minister)
• Katsunobu Kato (former chief cabinet secretary)
• Takayuki Kobayashi (former economic security minister)
• Shinjiro Koizumi (son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, former environment minister)
• Taro Kono (digital minister)
• Toshimitsu Motegi (LDP secretary-general)
• Sanae Takaichi (economic security minister)

Recent media surveys of LDP lawmakers and party members, however, make it a three-horse race between Ishiba, Koizumi and Takaichi. The party's 368 Diet members are expected to start casting ballots around 1 p.m. local time, with an equivalent number of votes allocated to the LDP's 1.09 million party members. The results of the first round are expected shortly after 2 p.m. If, as expected, no candidate wins a majority, a second round run-off between the top two candidates will be held shortly afterward. In that case, a total of 415 votes will be up for grabs -- 368 from the lawmakers and 47 from local party chapters.

Here are some stories to read as we await the results:

• 5 things to know on the LDP election.
• An extraordinary Diet session to elect the new prime minister will convene Oct. 1.
• Recent military provocations by China and Russia have focused attention on deterrence.
• Wall Street urges next PM to continue Kishida's reforms.
• Here's a longer read on the election by Koya Jibiki, a veteran political reporter.