BANGKOK -- The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute has led to political turmoil in Bangkok, with the Constitutional Court suspending Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her duties.
In announcing the decision on Tuesday, the court raised the possibility that Thailand would be in danger if the prime minister continued her role, citing leaked audio of her phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen that provoked public anger. Paetongtarn will be suspended until the court reaches a final verdict.
Here are five things to know:
What does the court process look like, and when will the final verdict be made?
The Constitutional Court has ordered Paetongtarn to send all documents and evidence to present her case within 15 days. The court is then expected to further investigate the case. The court may ask for more evidence and call witnesses before deciding on whether to allow her to stay in office.
"I'm not sure for how long [the suspension will be], but I have 15 days to clarify the facts, and I'll do my best to explain my intention of the leaked audio clip," Paetongtarn told reporters after the court decision.
"My intention is over 100% for national interests, in order to preserve our sovereignty, the lives of all the soldiers and the army, for the peace in our country, going forward. I'm very confident [in my intention]," she said.
It is unclear when the court would make a final verdict.
In the case of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, who was removed from office in August last year over what was decided to be an unconstitutional cabinet appointment, the court took nearly three months to reach a conclusion. Srettha was not suspended during the period and was allowed to continue in office.
If Paetongtarn is removed from office, what happens next?
If the court orders Paetongtarn removed from her post, parliament will convene to select a new prime minister.
A candidate must win a simple majority, or 248 out of 495 lower house members (excluding five vacancies), to be elected.
According to the constitution, political parties with at least 25 members of parliament can propose candidates for the vote. This time, they must be chosen from those who were registered as prime ministerial candidates during the last general election in May 2023.
Who are the possible candidates for the next PM?
Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party had three candidates for prime minister in the last election: Srettha, Paetongtarn and Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general. Chaikasem would be the only eligible candidate from the ruling party.
Chaikasem has said he would be willing to take over the post from Paetongtarn. The current ruling coalition, led by Pheu Thai, controls 261 seats in the lower house, meaning Chaikasem could be elected if he secures all votes from coalition parties.
Another possible pick is former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, of the United Thai Nation Party, which is part of the ruling coalition.
Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, which left the ruling coalition after the leaked audio surfaced, is also eligible. However, the party has only 69 MPs, making it difficult for him to get the premier post.
The most popular among the public is Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the largest opposition group, the People's Party, although he was not registered as a prime ministerial candidate during the last election. According to a June 19-25 poll of 2,500 people by the National Institute of Development Administration, 31% said Natthaphong was the most suitable to take over as prime minister.
Natthaphong has demanded a dissolution of the lower house to hold a general election. "The best solution is to return the power to the Thai people and let them pick up a new prime minister," he said.
In the same poll, Prayuth and Anutin received 13% and 10%, respectively.
What's the impact of Paetongtarn's suspension on the economy?
During the suspension period, one of the deputy prime ministers is expected to act as caretaker prime minister. With this mechanism in place, the government seeks to minimize the effect on the economy and other policymaking.
However, a temporary leader is expected to dampen confidence among foreign investors, which could eventually hurt the economy, according to analysts.
"Thailand faces renewed political uncertainty after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was today suspended," said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics. "This will undermine consumer and business sentiment and complicate efforts to agree a free trade deal with the U.S."
Is there a possibility of a general election in the near future?
A caretaker prime minister has the authority to dissolve the parliament. However, a caretaker premier does not normally decide on crucial issues, according to analysts.
With the budget bill for the fiscal year starting October 2025 under the parliamentary process, all parties are expected to prioritize its passage to secure government spending to support the slowing Thai economy. Analysts expect the budget bill to pass by the end of August.
"I think all political parties will try to make the budget bill to get approval before taking any action, particularly dissolution of the house," said Boonyakiat Karavekphan, a political lecturer at the Ramkhamhaeng University in Bangkok.
