By early March, India had reason to be optimistic about the pandemic. COVID-19 infection rates were dropping, from 97,000 new cases per day in September to fewer than 15,000 in February, and experts openly proclaimed India had achieved "herd immunity." Health Minister Harsh Vardhan declared that month "we are in the end game" of the pandemic, after the world's largest vaccination drive began a month earlier.
The pandemic continues to teach a harsh lesson: optimism is often not just wrong, but fatal. © Illustration by Hiroko Aida and Michael Tsang
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